Metagame tier list — Pauper
Ranks every Challenge-played strategy in the window by a hybrid signal: 75% Wilson-lower-bound match win rate from Challenges and 25% League 5-0 trophy throughput, modulated by a mild presence multiplier so popular decks edge slightly ahead of fringe ones. Leagues stay out of the MWR (every League row is 5-0 by construction) and contribute only through the trophy term. S is reserved for decks with Wilson lower-bound ≥ 58%, ≥ 200 matches, ≥ 5% meta share, and composite ≥ 0.62 — at most 2 per window.
S
Dominant, format-warping — must expect, test against, and plan for. Capped at 2 per window; an empty S means no single deck is running the format.
Wilson0.95 60.5% · GW 60.6% · score 0.654
Meta share 12.6% (221 apps)
Wilson0.95 59.3% · GW 59.1% · score 0.636
Meta share 13.8% (243 apps)
A
Solidly above the field. Reliable Challenge performers, often with steady League trophies too.
Wilson0.95 59.6% · GW 60.9% · score 0.595
Meta share 6.6% (116 apps)
Wilson0.95 60.3% · GW 61.6% · score 0.590
Meta share 4.3% (76 apps)
Wilson0.95 57.9% · GW 58.4% · score 0.577
Meta share 6.8% (119 apps)
Wilson0.95 58.0% · GW 58.5% · score 0.572
Meta share 6.8% (119 apps)
Wilson0.95 57.6% · GW 57.2% · score 0.567
Meta share 7.8% (137 apps)
Wilson0.95 58.0% · GW 59.7% · score 0.559
Meta share 2.9% (51 apps)
Wilson0.95 57.8% · GW 59.5% · score 0.547
Meta share 2.7% (47 apps)
Wilson0.95 54.3% · GW 56.9% · score 0.545
Meta share 5.0% (88 apps)
Wilson0.95 54.3% · GW 56.5% · score 0.540
Meta share 5.1% (89 apps)
Wilson0.95 53.8% · GW 54.6% · score 0.520
Meta share 5.2% (92 apps)
Wilson0.95 52.2% · GW 55.5% · score 0.506
Meta share 2.1% (37 apps)
Wilson0.95 55.3% · GW 60.2% · score 0.505
Meta share 1.3% (22 apps)
Wilson0.95 53.7% · GW 61.8% · score 0.475
Meta share 0.7% (13 apps)
B
Roughly average winrate after sample-size correction.
Wilson0.95 56.0% · GW 58.8% · score 0.492
Meta share 3.1% (55 apps)
Wilson0.95 52.3% · GW 58.9% · score 0.486
Meta share 1.8% (31 apps)
Wilson0.95 49.6% · GW 56.9% · score 0.453
Meta share 0.8% (14 apps)
Wilson0.95 55.2% · GW 62.3% · score 0.422
Meta share 1.4% (25 apps)
Wilson0.95 53.0% · GW 62.6% · score 0.404
Meta share 0.4% (7 apps)
C
Below average but still scored. Stable enough to rank.
Wilson0.95 44.1% · GW 58.1% · score 0.403
Meta share 0.6% (11 apps)
Wilson0.95 44.3% · GW 57.9% · score 0.351
Meta share 0.4% (7 apps)
Fringe / insufficient data
Insufficient sample — under 30 Challenge matches in the window (or below the 0.35 score floor) but at least 1% of meta share. Surfaced for visibility — not ranked.
Wilson0.95 56.9% · GW 57.6% · score 0.593
Meta share 6.3% (111 apps)
Methodology. mixed = 0.75 × Wilson0.95(matchWins, matchWins + matchLosses) + 0.25 × log1p(trophies)/log1p(formatMaxTrophies); score = mixed × (0.85 + 0.15 × log1p(meta%·100)/log1p(100)). S is reserved for decks with Wilson lower-bound ≥ 58%, ≥ 200 matches, ≥ 5% meta share, and composite ≥ 0.62 — at most 2 per window, and an empty S is a real signal that no single deck is running the format. A/B/C are 0.50 / 0.42 / 0.35 score floors. Anything under 30 Challenge matches drops to Unranked regardless of WR. A "notable niche" override promotes any deck with raw MWR ≥ 0.60 over 30+ matches to at least B (≥ 0.65 over 50+ matches to A), so genuinely strong but low-share decks like Premodern Replenish aren't penalized for sample size; the override never promotes to S. Records from Leagues stay out of the MWR — every League row is 5-0 by construction and would skew every Wilson interval upward — they contribute only through the trophy term.