Metagame tier list — Pauper
Ranks every Challenge-played strategy in the window by a hybrid signal: 75% Wilson-lower-bound match win rate from Challenges and 25% League 5-0 trophy throughput, modulated by a mild presence multiplier so popular decks edge slightly ahead of fringe ones. Leagues stay out of the MWR (every League row is 5-0 by construction) and contribute only through the trophy term. S is reserved for decks with Wilson lower-bound ≥ 58%, ≥ 200 matches, ≥ 5% meta share, and composite ≥ 0.62 — at most 2 per window.
S
Dominant, format-warping — must expect, test against, and plan for. Capped at 2 per window; an empty S means no single deck is running the format.
Wilson0.95 59.0% · GW 62.4% · score 0.629
Meta share 15.3% (44 apps)
A
Solidly above the field. Reliable Challenge performers, often with steady League trophies too.
Wilson0.95 57.9% · GW 62.8% · score 0.636
Meta share 12.2% (35 apps)
Wilson0.95 55.3% · GW 62.3% · score 0.570
Meta share 4.5% (13 apps)
Wilson0.95 56.3% · GW 60.3% · score 0.535
Meta share 4.9% (14 apps)
Wilson0.95 56.2% · GW 58.1% · score 0.522
Meta share 9.4% (27 apps)
Wilson0.95 51.9% · GW 56.1% · score 0.501
Meta share 6.6% (19 apps)
B
Roughly average winrate after sample-size correction.
Wilson0.95 47.3% · GW 54.4% · score 0.492
Meta share 5.2% (15 apps)
Wilson0.95 51.1% · GW 56.2% · score 0.484
Meta share 4.5% (13 apps)
Wilson0.95 48.5% · GW 59.4% · score 0.482
Meta share 3.5% (10 apps)
Wilson0.95 47.7% · GW 57.4% · score 0.463
Meta share 5.6% (16 apps)
Wilson0.95 47.9% · GW 58.0% · score 0.461
Meta share 2.4% (7 apps)
Wilson0.95 50.2% · GW 56.7% · score 0.458
Meta share 3.1% (9 apps)
Wilson0.95 51.1% · GW 59.8% · score 0.450
Meta share 2.4% (7 apps)
Wilson0.95 47.8% · GW 55.5% · score 0.407
Meta share 2.8% (8 apps)
Wilson0.95 47.0% · GW 59.3% · score 0.382
Meta share 2.1% (6 apps)
Wilson0.95 48.6% · GW 66.3% · score 0.363
Meta share 2.4% (7 apps)
C
Below average but still scored. Stable enough to rank.
No C-tier decks in this window.
Fringe / insufficient data
Insufficient sample — under 30 Challenge matches in the window (or below the 0.35 score floor) but at least 1% of meta share. Surfaced for visibility — not ranked.
Wilson0.95 49.7% · GW 58.4% · score 0.525
Meta share 5.9% (17 apps)
Wilson0.95 54.3% · GW 66.0% · score 0.478
Meta share 1.4% (4 apps)
Wilson0.95 55.1% · GW 62.5% · score 0.443
Meta share 1.0% (3 apps)
Wilson0.95 52.9% · GW 61.7% · score 0.391
Meta share 1.4% (4 apps)
Wilson0.95 40.7% · GW 56.9% · score 0.300
Meta share 1.4% (4 apps)
Methodology. mixed = 0.75 × Wilson0.95(matchWins, matchWins + matchLosses) + 0.25 × log1p(trophies)/log1p(formatMaxTrophies); score = mixed × (0.85 + 0.15 × log1p(meta%·100)/log1p(100)). S is reserved for decks with Wilson lower-bound ≥ 58%, ≥ 200 matches, ≥ 5% meta share, and composite ≥ 0.62 — at most 2 per window, and an empty S is a real signal that no single deck is running the format. A/B/C are 0.50 / 0.42 / 0.35 score floors. Anything under 30 Challenge matches drops to Unranked regardless of WR. A "notable niche" override promotes any deck with raw MWR ≥ 0.60 over 30+ matches to at least B (≥ 0.65 over 50+ matches to A), so genuinely strong but low-share decks like Premodern Replenish aren't penalized for sample size; the override never promotes to S. Records from Leagues stay out of the MWR — every League row is 5-0 by construction and would skew every Wilson interval upward — they contribute only through the trophy term.