Metagame tier list — Modern
Ranks every Challenge-played strategy in the window by a hybrid signal: 75% Wilson-lower-bound match win rate from Challenges and 25% League 5-0 trophy throughput, modulated by a mild presence multiplier so popular decks edge slightly ahead of fringe ones. Leagues stay out of the MWR (every League row is 5-0 by construction) and contribute only through the trophy term. S is reserved for decks with Wilson lower-bound ≥ 58%, ≥ 200 matches, ≥ 5% meta share, and composite ≥ 0.62 — at most 2 per window.
S
Dominant, format-warping — must expect, test against, and plan for. Capped at 2 per window; an empty S means no single deck is running the format.
Wilson0.95 64.9% · GW 60.6% · score 0.678
Meta share 12.9% (103 apps)
Wilson0.95 64.9% · GW 64.6% · score 0.651
Meta share 8.1% (65 apps)
A
Solidly above the field. Reliable Challenge performers, often with steady League trophies too.
Wilson0.95 64.4% · GW 62.4% · score 0.650
Meta share 6.1% (49 apps)
Wilson0.95 61.0% · GW 62.7% · score 0.627
Meta share 6.0% (48 apps)
Wilson0.95 61.1% · GW 59.2% · score 0.617
Meta share 7.4% (59 apps)
Wilson0.95 65.2% · GW 62.7% · score 0.600
Meta share 5.3% (42 apps)
Wilson0.95 58.7% · GW 58.4% · score 0.579
Meta share 4.0% (32 apps)
Wilson0.95 59.3% · GW 58.9% · score 0.577
Meta share 7.9% (63 apps)
Wilson0.95 62.4% · GW 62.3% · score 0.563
Meta share 5.0% (40 apps)
Wilson0.95 59.2% · GW 61.4% · score 0.552
Meta share 3.0% (24 apps)
Wilson0.95 58.6% · GW 62.4% · score 0.538
Meta share 3.6% (29 apps)
Wilson0.95 58.6% · GW 62.4% · score 0.533
Meta share 2.1% (17 apps)
Wilson0.95 54.7% · GW 59.9% · score 0.532
Meta share 2.5% (20 apps)
Wilson0.95 61.6% · GW 63.8% · score 0.531
Meta share 2.0% (16 apps)
Wilson0.95 58.5% · GW 61.1% · score 0.504
Meta share 2.8% (22 apps)
Wilson0.95 58.5% · GW 60.5% · score 0.499
Meta share 1.9% (15 apps)
Wilson0.95 56.6% · GW 62.1% · score 0.464
Meta share 2.1% (17 apps)
B
Roughly average winrate after sample-size correction.
Wilson0.95 55.5% · GW 59.8% · score 0.496
Meta share 0.8% (6 apps)
Wilson0.95 53.1% · GW 57.1% · score 0.490
Meta share 2.5% (20 apps)
Wilson0.95 52.4% · GW 56.0% · score 0.477
Meta share 1.3% (10 apps)
Wilson0.95 50.2% · GW 58.1% · score 0.436
Meta share 0.8% (6 apps)
Wilson0.95 44.9% · GW 54.4% · score 0.429
Meta share 1.1% (9 apps)
Wilson0.95 50.4% · GW 62.2% · score 0.428
Meta share 0.9% (7 apps)
Wilson0.95 50.5% · GW 62.7% · score 0.390
Meta share 0.8% (6 apps)
Wilson0.95 49.2% · GW 63.9% · score 0.368
Meta share 0.6% (5 apps)
Wilson0.95 45.5% · GW 55.0% · score 0.357
Meta share 0.5% (4 apps)
C
Below average but still scored. Stable enough to rank.
Wilson0.95 45.0% · GW 55.1% · score 0.399
Meta share 1.0% (8 apps)
Fringe / insufficient data
Insufficient sample — under 30 Challenge matches in the window (or below the 0.35 score floor) but at least 1% of meta share. Surfaced for visibility — not ranked.
Wilson0.95 52.2% · GW 56.0% · score 0.448
Meta share 1.5% (12 apps)
Methodology. mixed = 0.75 × Wilson0.95(matchWins, matchWins + matchLosses) + 0.25 × log1p(trophies)/log1p(formatMaxTrophies); score = mixed × (0.85 + 0.15 × log1p(meta%·100)/log1p(100)). S is reserved for decks with Wilson lower-bound ≥ 58%, ≥ 200 matches, ≥ 5% meta share, and composite ≥ 0.62 — at most 2 per window, and an empty S is a real signal that no single deck is running the format. A/B/C are 0.50 / 0.42 / 0.35 score floors. Anything under 30 Challenge matches drops to Unranked regardless of WR. A "notable niche" override promotes any deck with raw MWR ≥ 0.60 over 30+ matches to at least B (≥ 0.65 over 50+ matches to A), so genuinely strong but low-share decks like Premodern Replenish aren't penalized for sample size; the override never promotes to S. Records from Leagues stay out of the MWR — every League row is 5-0 by construction and would skew every Wilson interval upward — they contribute only through the trophy term.