Metagame tier list — Pauper
Ranks every Challenge-played strategy in the window by a hybrid signal: 75% Wilson-lower-bound match win rate from Challenges and 25% League 5-0 trophy throughput, modulated by a mild presence multiplier so popular decks edge slightly ahead of fringe ones. Leagues stay out of the MWR (every League row is 5-0 by construction) and contribute only through the trophy term. S is reserved for decks with Wilson lower-bound ≥ 58%, ≥ 200 matches, ≥ 5% meta share, and composite ≥ 0.62 — at most 2 per window.
S
Dominant, format-warping — must expect, test against, and plan for. Capped at 2 per window; an empty S means no single deck is running the format.
Wilson0.95 59.9% · GW 60.9% · score 0.649
Meta share 11.6% (141 apps)
Wilson0.95 58.6% · GW 59.1% · score 0.630
Meta share 12.7% (155 apps)
A
Solidly above the field. Reliable Challenge performers, often with steady League trophies too.
Wilson0.95 59.6% · GW 61.8% · score 0.593
Meta share 4.7% (57 apps)
Wilson0.95 56.7% · GW 59.1% · score 0.572
Meta share 6.4% (78 apps)
Wilson0.95 57.0% · GW 57.8% · score 0.564
Meta share 5.8% (70 apps)
Wilson0.95 56.3% · GW 57.8% · score 0.564
Meta share 7.3% (89 apps)
Wilson0.95 58.0% · GW 60.9% · score 0.546
Meta share 2.4% (29 apps)
Wilson0.95 53.7% · GW 56.8% · score 0.544
Meta share 6.3% (77 apps)
Wilson0.95 56.9% · GW 59.5% · score 0.543
Meta share 2.9% (35 apps)
Wilson0.95 55.1% · GW 55.9% · score 0.534
Meta share 7.1% (86 apps)
Wilson0.95 53.7% · GW 54.7% · score 0.523
Meta share 6.0% (73 apps)
Wilson0.95 50.7% · GW 55.8% · score 0.506
Meta share 2.5% (30 apps)
Wilson0.95 51.1% · GW 55.3% · score 0.505
Meta share 3.9% (48 apps)
Wilson0.95 52.3% · GW 58.9% · score 0.503
Meta share 2.5% (31 apps)
Wilson0.95 52.3% · GW 61.7% · score 0.476
Meta share 1.0% (12 apps)
B
Roughly average winrate after sample-size correction.
Wilson0.95 54.4% · GW 59.2% · score 0.476
Meta share 3.5% (43 apps)
Wilson0.95 51.4% · GW 59.1% · score 0.463
Meta share 0.9% (11 apps)
Wilson0.95 50.2% · GW 57.5% · score 0.442
Meta share 0.7% (8 apps)
Wilson0.95 54.6% · GW 62.4% · score 0.427
Meta share 2.0% (24 apps)
Wilson0.95 44.7% · GW 60.8% · score 0.411
Meta share 0.6% (7 apps)
Wilson0.95 50.8% · GW 60.4% · score 0.381
Meta share 0.5% (6 apps)
C
Below average but still scored. Stable enough to rank.
No C-tier decks in this window.
Fringe / insufficient data
Insufficient sample — under 30 Challenge matches in the window (or below the 0.35 score floor) but at least 1% of meta share. Surfaced for visibility — not ranked.
Wilson0.95 57.1% · GW 58.2% · score 0.596
Meta share 6.9% (84 apps)
Methodology. mixed = 0.75 × Wilson0.95(matchWins, matchWins + matchLosses) + 0.25 × log1p(trophies)/log1p(formatMaxTrophies); score = mixed × (0.85 + 0.15 × log1p(meta%·100)/log1p(100)). S is reserved for decks with Wilson lower-bound ≥ 58%, ≥ 200 matches, ≥ 5% meta share, and composite ≥ 0.62 — at most 2 per window, and an empty S is a real signal that no single deck is running the format. A/B/C are 0.50 / 0.42 / 0.35 score floors. Anything under 30 Challenge matches drops to Unranked regardless of WR. A "notable niche" override promotes any deck with raw MWR ≥ 0.60 over 30+ matches to at least B (≥ 0.65 over 50+ matches to A), so genuinely strong but low-share decks like Premodern Replenish aren't penalized for sample size; the override never promotes to S. Records from Leagues stay out of the MWR — every League row is 5-0 by construction and would skew every Wilson interval upward — they contribute only through the trophy term.