Metagame tier list — Pauper
Ranks every Challenge-played strategy in the window by a hybrid signal: 75% Wilson-lower-bound match win rate from Challenges and 25% League 5-0 trophy throughput, modulated by a mild presence multiplier so popular decks edge slightly ahead of fringe ones. Leagues stay out of the MWR (every League row is 5-0 by construction) and contribute only through the trophy term. S is reserved for decks with Wilson lower-bound ≥ 58%, ≥ 200 matches, ≥ 5% meta share, and composite ≥ 0.62 — at most 2 per window.
S
Dominant, format-warping — must expect, test against, and plan for. Capped at 2 per window; an empty S means no single deck is running the format.
Wilson0.95 61.0% · GW 62.9% · score 0.654
Meta share 10.6% (71 apps)
A
Solidly above the field. Reliable Challenge performers, often with steady League trophies too.
Wilson0.95 59.8% · GW 63.2% · score 0.609
Meta share 6.5% (44 apps)
Wilson0.95 57.4% · GW 59.4% · score 0.608
Meta share 13.2% (89 apps)
Wilson0.95 55.9% · GW 58.5% · score 0.544
Meta share 6.0% (40 apps)
Wilson0.95 57.2% · GW 60.5% · score 0.533
Meta share 3.1% (21 apps)
Wilson0.95 52.5% · GW 56.9% · score 0.530
Meta share 6.1% (41 apps)
Wilson0.95 55.2% · GW 56.7% · score 0.520
Meta share 7.1% (48 apps)
Wilson0.95 51.3% · GW 57.5% · score 0.519
Meta share 5.4% (36 apps)
Wilson0.95 51.2% · GW 56.6% · score 0.514
Meta share 6.1% (41 apps)
Wilson0.95 53.2% · GW 54.8% · score 0.512
Meta share 7.1% (48 apps)
Wilson0.95 55.7% · GW 61.4% · score 0.511
Meta share 2.4% (16 apps)
Wilson0.95 52.3% · GW 61.7% · score 0.497
Meta share 1.6% (11 apps)
B
Roughly average winrate after sample-size correction.
Wilson0.95 53.9% · GW 60.5% · score 0.498
Meta share 3.4% (23 apps)
Wilson0.95 48.0% · GW 55.3% · score 0.489
Meta share 2.5% (17 apps)
Wilson0.95 47.8% · GW 56.4% · score 0.442
Meta share 2.5% (17 apps)
Wilson0.95 53.6% · GW 63.1% · score 0.417
Meta share 2.1% (14 apps)
C
Below average but still scored. Stable enough to rank.
Wilson0.95 47.7% · GW 55.5% · score 0.402
Meta share 2.5% (17 apps)
Fringe / insufficient data
Insufficient sample — under 30 Challenge matches in the window (or below the 0.35 score floor) but at least 1% of meta share. Surfaced for visibility — not ranked.
Wilson0.95 52.4% · GW 56.6% · score 0.555
Meta share 6.7% (45 apps)
Methodology. mixed = 0.75 × Wilson0.95(matchWins, matchWins + matchLosses) + 0.25 × log1p(trophies)/log1p(formatMaxTrophies); score = mixed × (0.85 + 0.15 × log1p(meta%·100)/log1p(100)). S is reserved for decks with Wilson lower-bound ≥ 58%, ≥ 200 matches, ≥ 5% meta share, and composite ≥ 0.62 — at most 2 per window, and an empty S is a real signal that no single deck is running the format. A/B/C are 0.50 / 0.42 / 0.35 score floors. Anything under 30 Challenge matches drops to Unranked regardless of WR. A "notable niche" override promotes any deck with raw MWR ≥ 0.60 over 30+ matches to at least B (≥ 0.65 over 50+ matches to A), so genuinely strong but low-share decks like Premodern Replenish aren't penalized for sample size; the override never promotes to S. Records from Leagues stay out of the MWR — every League row is 5-0 by construction and would skew every Wilson interval upward — they contribute only through the trophy term.