Metagame tier list — Vintage
Ranks every Challenge-played strategy in the window by a hybrid signal: 75% Wilson-lower-bound match win rate from Challenges and 25% League 5-0 trophy throughput, modulated by a mild presence multiplier so popular decks edge slightly ahead of fringe ones. Leagues stay out of the MWR (every League row is 5-0 by construction) and contribute only through the trophy term. S is reserved for decks with Wilson lower-bound ≥ 58%, ≥ 200 matches, ≥ 5% meta share, and composite ≥ 0.62 — at most 2 per window.
S
Dominant, format-warping — must expect, test against, and plan for. Capped at 2 per window; an empty S means no single deck is running the format.
No deck is dominating this format right now — nothing clears all four S gates.
A
Solidly above the field. Reliable Challenge performers, often with steady League trophies too.
Wilson0.95 53.4% · GW 54.8% · score 0.623
Meta share 27.2% (419 apps)
Wilson0.95 52.2% · GW 55.0% · score 0.563
Meta share 12.2% (187 apps)
Wilson0.95 51.3% · GW 55.0% · score 0.548
Meta share 9.5% (146 apps)
Wilson0.95 54.8% · GW 56.2% · score 0.535
Meta share 9.4% (144 apps)
Wilson0.95 53.2% · GW 54.9% · score 0.529
Meta share 7.3% (113 apps)
Wilson0.95 53.9% · GW 56.6% · score 0.511
Meta share 5.0% (77 apps)
Wilson0.95 49.1% · GW 54.6% · score 0.510
Meta share 10.0% (154 apps)
B
Roughly average winrate after sample-size correction.
Wilson0.95 49.5% · GW 52.2% · score 0.495
Meta share 7.9% (122 apps)
Wilson0.95 45.7% · GW 51.7% · score 0.447
Meta share 2.7% (41 apps)
Wilson0.95 45.9% · GW 53.3% · score 0.426
Meta share 2.4% (37 apps)
C
Below average but still scored. Stable enough to rank.
Wilson0.95 44.9% · GW 52.2% · score 0.395
Meta share 1.5% (23 apps)
Wilson0.95 45.3% · GW 51.5% · score 0.385
Meta share 1.0% (16 apps)
Fringe / insufficient data
Insufficient sample — under 30 Challenge matches in the window (or below the 0.35 score floor) but at least 1% of meta share. Surfaced for visibility — not ranked.
Wilson0.95 40.6% · GW 48.0% · score 0.390
Meta share 2.4% (37 apps)
Methodology. mixed = 0.75 × Wilson0.95(matchWins, matchWins + matchLosses) + 0.25 × log1p(trophies)/log1p(formatMaxTrophies); score = mixed × (0.85 + 0.15 × log1p(meta%·100)/log1p(100)). S is reserved for decks with Wilson lower-bound ≥ 58%, ≥ 200 matches, ≥ 5% meta share, and composite ≥ 0.62 — at most 2 per window, and an empty S is a real signal that no single deck is running the format. A/B/C are 0.50 / 0.42 / 0.35 score floors. Anything under 30 Challenge matches drops to Unranked regardless of WR. A "notable niche" override promotes any deck with raw MWR ≥ 0.60 over 30+ matches to at least B (≥ 0.65 over 50+ matches to A), so genuinely strong but low-share decks like Premodern Replenish aren't penalized for sample size; the override never promotes to S. Records from Leagues stay out of the MWR — every League row is 5-0 by construction and would skew every Wilson interval upward — they contribute only through the trophy term.