◈Decklist Data

Metagame tier list — Vintage

Ranks every Challenge-played strategy in the window by a hybrid signal: 75% Wilson-lower-bound match win rate from Challenges and 25% League 5-0 trophy throughput, modulated by a mild presence multiplier so popular decks edge slightly ahead of fringe ones. Leagues stay out of the MWR (every League row is 5-0 by construction) and contribute only through the trophy term. S is reserved for decks with Wilson lower-bound ≥ 58%, ≥ 200 matches, ≥ 5% meta share, and composite ≥ 0.62 — at most 2 per window.

14d30d60d90d
1,055 Challenge appearances from 2026-04-14 to 2026-06-13.

S

Dominant, format-warping — must expect, test against, and plan for. Capped at 2 per window; an empty S means no single deck is running the format.

0 decks

No deck is dominating this format right now — nothing clears all four S gates.

A

Solidly above the field. Reliable Challenge performers, often with steady League trophies too.

6 decks
Lurrus
MWR 55.3%over 1,671 matches

Wilson0.95 52.9% · GW 54.7% · score 0.620

Meta share 28.3% (299 apps)

Trophies: 79
Raker Shops
MWR 55.2%over 645 matches

Wilson0.95 51.3% · GW 54.9% · score 0.558

Meta share 11.1% (117 apps)

Trophies: 42
Sphere Shops
MWR 58.9%over 579 matches

Wilson0.95 54.8% · GW 56.7% · score 0.529

Meta share 8.8% (93 apps)

Trophies: 17
Paradoxical Outcome
MWR 52.9%over 514 matches

Wilson0.95 48.6% · GW 53.9% · score 0.525

Meta share 9.0% (95 apps)

Trophies: 33
Oath
MWR 56.7%over 504 matches

Wilson0.95 52.4% · GW 54.3% · score 0.508

Meta share 8.4% (89 apps)

Trophies: 16
Dredge
MWR 53.3%over 492 matches

Wilson0.95 48.8% · GW 55.8% · score 0.500

Meta share 9.1% (96 apps)

Trophies: 19

B

Roughly average winrate after sample-size correction.

3 decks
Mono-White Initiative
MWR 52.4%over 510 matches

Wilson0.95 48.0% · GW 51.5% · score 0.486

Meta share 8.6% (91 apps)

Trophies: 18
Underworld Breach
MWR 55.1%over 225 matches

Wilson0.95 48.6% · GW 54.5% · score 0.464

Meta share 4.0% (42 apps)

Trophies: 13
Mono-Blue Tinker
MWR 52.1%over 215 matches

Wilson0.95 45.4% · GW 51.6% · score 0.457

Meta share 3.6% (38 apps)

Trophies: 18

C

Below average but still scored. Stable enough to rank.

3 decks
Coveted Jewel Combo
MWR 54.2%over 107 matches

Wilson0.95 44.8% · GW 52.7% · score 0.393

Meta share 1.9% (20 apps)

Trophies: 6
Sultai Midrange
MWR 57.1%over 70 matches

Wilson0.95 45.5% · GW 52.1% · score 0.372

Meta share 1.2% (13 apps)

Trophies: 4
Azorius Control
MWR 48.3%over 89 matches

Wilson0.95 38.2% · GW 50.6% · score 0.371

Meta share 1.6% (17 apps)

Trophies: 9

Fringe / insufficient data

Insufficient sample — under 30 Challenge matches in the window (or below the 0.35 score floor) but at least 1% of meta share. Surfaced for visibility — not ranked.

1 deck
Rogue
MWR 45.0%over 151 matches

Wilson0.95 37.3% · GW 47.3% · score 0.358

Meta share 2.8% (30 apps)

Trophies: 7

Methodology. mixed = 0.75 × Wilson0.95(matchWins, matchWins + matchLosses) + 0.25 × log1p(trophies)/log1p(formatMaxTrophies); score = mixed × (0.85 + 0.15 × log1p(meta%·100)/log1p(100)). S is reserved for decks with Wilson lower-bound ≥ 58%, ≥ 200 matches, ≥ 5% meta share, and composite ≥ 0.62 — at most 2 per window, and an empty S is a real signal that no single deck is running the format. A/B/C are 0.50 / 0.42 / 0.35 score floors. Anything under 30 Challenge matches drops to Unranked regardless of WR. A "notable niche" override promotes any deck with raw MWR ≥ 0.60 over 30+ matches to at least B (≥ 0.65 over 50+ matches to A), so genuinely strong but low-share decks like Premodern Replenish aren't penalized for sample size; the override never promotes to S. Records from Leagues stay out of the MWR — every League row is 5-0 by construction and would skew every Wilson interval upward — they contribute only through the trophy term.