Metagame tier list — Premodern
Ranks every Challenge-played strategy in the window by a hybrid signal: 75% Wilson-lower-bound match win rate from Challenges and 25% League 5-0 trophy throughput, modulated by a mild presence multiplier so popular decks edge slightly ahead of fringe ones. Leagues stay out of the MWR (every League row is 5-0 by construction) and contribute only through the trophy term. S is reserved for decks with Wilson lower-bound ≥ 58%, ≥ 200 matches, ≥ 5% meta share, and composite ≥ 0.62 — at most 2 per window.
S
Dominant, format-warping — must expect, test against, and plan for. Capped at 2 per window; an empty S means no single deck is running the format.
Wilson0.95 58.5% · GW 59.6% · score 0.650
Meta share 19.2% (244 apps)
A
Solidly above the field. Reliable Challenge performers, often with steady League trophies too.
Wilson0.95 55.6% · GW 57.8% · score 0.610
Meta share 7.5% (96 apps)
Wilson0.95 54.5% · GW 57.0% · score 0.552
Meta share 6.9% (88 apps)
Wilson0.95 50.8% · GW 54.9% · score 0.545
Meta share 8.3% (106 apps)
Wilson0.95 47.2% · GW 51.0% · score 0.538
Meta share 6.5% (83 apps)
Wilson0.95 52.5% · GW 55.8% · score 0.533
Meta share 7.5% (95 apps)
Wilson0.95 55.1% · GW 58.0% · score 0.514
Meta share 1.7% (22 apps)
Wilson0.95 47.4% · GW 54.0% · score 0.503
Meta share 3.8% (49 apps)
B
Roughly average winrate after sample-size correction.
Wilson0.95 51.3% · GW 54.0% · score 0.498
Meta share 3.4% (43 apps)
Wilson0.95 47.3% · GW 53.7% · score 0.491
Meta share 2.0% (26 apps)
Wilson0.95 50.3% · GW 57.1% · score 0.488
Meta share 3.9% (50 apps)
Wilson0.95 51.8% · GW 59.7% · score 0.469
Meta share 3.1% (40 apps)
Wilson0.95 46.7% · GW 50.8% · score 0.453
Meta share 4.6% (59 apps)
Wilson0.95 46.9% · GW 56.6% · score 0.451
Meta share 2.4% (31 apps)
Wilson0.95 46.0% · GW 53.3% · score 0.422
Meta share 2.4% (31 apps)
Wilson0.95 50.2% · GW 60.1% · score 0.407
Meta share 0.6% (8 apps)
C
Below average but still scored. Stable enough to rank.
Wilson0.95 46.0% · GW 54.9% · score 0.414
Meta share 0.7% (9 apps)
Wilson0.95 37.2% · GW 49.2% · score 0.412
Meta share 0.8% (10 apps)
Wilson0.95 46.7% · GW 58.0% · score 0.408
Meta share 1.3% (16 apps)
Wilson0.95 40.2% · GW 49.7% · score 0.404
Meta share 0.9% (12 apps)
Wilson0.95 46.2% · GW 57.0% · score 0.387
Meta share 0.8% (10 apps)
Wilson0.95 32.5% · GW 51.6% · score 0.360
Meta share 0.5% (7 apps)
Fringe / insufficient data
Insufficient sample — under 30 Challenge matches in the window (or below the 0.35 score floor) but at least 1% of meta share. Surfaced for visibility — not ranked.
Wilson0.95 35.4% · GW 48.6% · score 0.346
Meta share 1.0% (13 apps)
Wilson0.95 47.0% · GW 55.0% · score 0.343
Meta share 1.7% (22 apps)
Wilson0.95 44.3% · GW 54.0% · score 0.326
Meta share 1.4% (18 apps)
Methodology. mixed = 0.75 × Wilson0.95(matchWins, matchWins + matchLosses) + 0.25 × log1p(trophies)/log1p(formatMaxTrophies); score = mixed × (0.85 + 0.15 × log1p(meta%·100)/log1p(100)). S is reserved for decks with Wilson lower-bound ≥ 58%, ≥ 200 matches, ≥ 5% meta share, and composite ≥ 0.62 — at most 2 per window, and an empty S is a real signal that no single deck is running the format. A/B/C are 0.50 / 0.42 / 0.35 score floors. Anything under 30 Challenge matches drops to Unranked regardless of WR. A "notable niche" override promotes any deck with raw MWR ≥ 0.60 over 30+ matches to at least B (≥ 0.65 over 50+ matches to A), so genuinely strong but low-share decks like Premodern Replenish aren't penalized for sample size; the override never promotes to S. Records from Leagues stay out of the MWR — every League row is 5-0 by construction and would skew every Wilson interval upward — they contribute only through the trophy term.