Metagame tier list — Premodern
Ranks every Challenge-played strategy in the window by a hybrid signal: 75% Wilson-lower-bound match win rate from Challenges and 25% League 5-0 trophy throughput, modulated by a mild presence multiplier so popular decks edge slightly ahead of fringe ones. Leagues stay out of the MWR (every League row is 5-0 by construction) and contribute only through the trophy term. S is reserved for decks with Wilson lower-bound ≥ 58%, ≥ 200 matches, ≥ 5% meta share, and composite ≥ 0.62 — at most 2 per window.
S
Dominant, format-warping — must expect, test against, and plan for. Capped at 2 per window; an empty S means no single deck is running the format.
No deck is dominating this format right now — nothing clears all four S gates.
A
Solidly above the field. Reliable Challenge performers, often with steady League trophies too.
Wilson0.95 55.4% · GW 60.8% · score 0.609
Meta share 8.7% (22 apps)
Wilson0.95 54.2% · GW 61.1% · score 0.586
Meta share 21.4% (54 apps)
Wilson0.95 50.0% · GW 52.9% · score 0.571
Meta share 9.5% (24 apps)
B
Roughly average winrate after sample-size correction.
Wilson0.95 51.8% · GW 57.2% · score 0.497
Meta share 7.5% (19 apps)
Wilson0.95 47.4% · GW 56.0% · score 0.468
Meta share 4.8% (12 apps)
Wilson0.95 45.3% · GW 55.1% · score 0.437
Meta share 2.8% (7 apps)
Wilson0.95 42.7% · GW 50.5% · score 0.435
Meta share 6.3% (16 apps)
Wilson0.95 44.9% · GW 61.4% · score 0.343
Meta share 2.0% (5 apps)
C
Below average but still scored. Stable enough to rank.
Wilson0.95 47.8% · GW 55.8% · score 0.372
Meta share 6.0% (15 apps)
Wilson0.95 40.2% · GW 46.7% · score 0.353
Meta share 3.2% (8 apps)
Wilson0.95 37.1% · GW 48.6% · score 0.351
Meta share 5.6% (14 apps)
Fringe / insufficient data
Insufficient sample — under 30 Challenge matches in the window (or below the 0.35 score floor) but at least 1% of meta share. Surfaced for visibility — not ranked.
Wilson0.95 40.9% · GW 64.4% · score 0.343
Meta share 2.4% (6 apps)
Wilson0.95 33.2% · GW 42.9% · score 0.335
Meta share 2.0% (5 apps)
Wilson0.95 45.5% · GW 54.2% · score 0.332
Meta share 2.0% (5 apps)
Wilson0.95 36.6% · GW 46.7% · score 0.317
Meta share 4.0% (10 apps)
Wilson0.95 30.7% · GW 49.2% · score 0.276
Meta share 1.6% (4 apps)
Wilson0.95 30.2% · GW 50.0% · score 0.269
Meta share 2.0% (5 apps)
Methodology. mixed = 0.75 × Wilson0.95(matchWins, matchWins + matchLosses) + 0.25 × log1p(trophies)/log1p(formatMaxTrophies); score = mixed × (0.85 + 0.15 × log1p(meta%·100)/log1p(100)). S is reserved for decks with Wilson lower-bound ≥ 58%, ≥ 200 matches, ≥ 5% meta share, and composite ≥ 0.62 — at most 2 per window, and an empty S is a real signal that no single deck is running the format. A/B/C are 0.50 / 0.42 / 0.35 score floors. Anything under 30 Challenge matches drops to Unranked regardless of WR. A "notable niche" override promotes any deck with raw MWR ≥ 0.60 over 30+ matches to at least B (≥ 0.65 over 50+ matches to A), so genuinely strong but low-share decks like Premodern Replenish aren't penalized for sample size; the override never promotes to S. Records from Leagues stay out of the MWR — every League row is 5-0 by construction and would skew every Wilson interval upward — they contribute only through the trophy term.