Metagame tier list — Modern
Ranks every Challenge-played strategy in the window by a hybrid signal: 75% Wilson-lower-bound match win rate from Challenges and 25% League 5-0 trophy throughput, modulated by a mild presence multiplier so popular decks edge slightly ahead of fringe ones. Leagues stay out of the MWR (every League row is 5-0 by construction) and contribute only through the trophy term. S is reserved for decks with Wilson lower-bound ≥ 58%, ≥ 200 matches, ≥ 5% meta share, and composite ≥ 0.62 — at most 2 per window.
S
Dominant, format-warping — must expect, test against, and plan for. Capped at 2 per window; an empty S means no single deck is running the format.
A
Solidly above the field. Reliable Challenge performers, often with steady League trophies too.
Wilson0.95 64.2% · GW 63.9% · score 0.637
Meta share 5.6% (108 apps)
Wilson0.95 62.2% · GW 60.7% · score 0.634
Meta share 5.3% (104 apps)
Wilson0.95 61.1% · GW 58.7% · score 0.625
Meta share 7.4% (143 apps)
Wilson0.95 60.7% · GW 60.1% · score 0.601
Meta share 3.6% (70 apps)
Wilson0.95 61.7% · GW 60.5% · score 0.597
Meta share 5.6% (109 apps)
Wilson0.95 63.3% · GW 61.8% · score 0.590
Meta share 4.2% (82 apps)
Wilson0.95 59.3% · GW 58.3% · score 0.573
Meta share 3.8% (74 apps)
Wilson0.95 59.1% · GW 59.6% · score 0.568
Meta share 3.3% (65 apps)
Wilson0.95 59.5% · GW 60.7% · score 0.557
Meta share 2.5% (49 apps)
Wilson0.95 59.2% · GW 60.6% · score 0.557
Meta share 4.1% (80 apps)
Wilson0.95 61.2% · GW 62.3% · score 0.551
Meta share 1.2% (23 apps)
Wilson0.95 63.5% · GW 65.5% · score 0.548
Meta share 1.9% (37 apps)
Wilson0.95 61.4% · GW 59.6% · score 0.546
Meta share 3.1% (61 apps)
Wilson0.95 57.8% · GW 58.6% · score 0.544
Meta share 2.3% (45 apps)
Wilson0.95 60.8% · GW 62.5% · score 0.544
Meta share 1.6% (32 apps)
Wilson0.95 62.0% · GW 62.2% · score 0.544
Meta share 2.5% (48 apps)
Wilson0.95 61.7% · GW 60.7% · score 0.536
Meta share 1.2% (23 apps)
Wilson0.95 62.9% · GW 64.5% · score 0.528
Meta share 2.2% (43 apps)
Wilson0.95 55.8% · GW 57.1% · score 0.507
Meta share 1.2% (24 apps)
Wilson0.95 56.0% · GW 61.4% · score 0.502
Meta share 2.0% (38 apps)
Wilson0.95 55.6% · GW 59.5% · score 0.501
Meta share 1.9% (36 apps)
Wilson0.95 57.1% · GW 64.7% · score 0.447
Meta share 0.7% (13 apps)
Wilson0.95 58.1% · GW 60.4% · score 0.392
Meta share 0.6% (12 apps)
B
Roughly average winrate after sample-size correction.
Wilson0.95 55.0% · GW 58.4% · score 0.489
Meta share 1.2% (24 apps)
Wilson0.95 45.2% · GW 54.3% · score 0.457
Meta share 0.9% (18 apps)
Wilson0.95 52.9% · GW 59.7% · score 0.447
Meta share 0.9% (17 apps)
Wilson0.95 51.8% · GW 59.9% · score 0.443
Meta share 0.6% (12 apps)
Wilson0.95 53.6% · GW 64.2% · score 0.423
Meta share 0.4% (7 apps)
Wilson0.95 45.0% · GW 60.0% · score 0.422
Meta share 0.4% (8 apps)
Wilson0.95 50.3% · GW 61.2% · score 0.403
Meta share 0.3% (6 apps)
Wilson0.95 50.1% · GW 63.8% · score 0.399
Meta share 0.4% (8 apps)
Wilson0.95 49.6% · GW 60.7% · score 0.385
Meta share 0.5% (10 apps)
Wilson0.95 47.5% · GW 54.7% · score 0.383
Meta share 0.4% (8 apps)
C
Below average but still scored. Stable enough to rank.
Wilson0.95 47.4% · GW 55.5% · score 0.372
Meta share 0.8% (16 apps)
Fringe / insufficient data
Insufficient sample — under 30 Challenge matches in the window (or below the 0.35 score floor) but at least 1% of meta share. Surfaced for visibility — not ranked.
Wilson0.95 47.8% · GW 51.0% · score 0.429
Meta share 1.0% (20 apps)
Methodology. mixed = 0.75 × Wilson0.95(matchWins, matchWins + matchLosses) + 0.25 × log1p(trophies)/log1p(formatMaxTrophies); score = mixed × (0.85 + 0.15 × log1p(meta%·100)/log1p(100)). S is reserved for decks with Wilson lower-bound ≥ 58%, ≥ 200 matches, ≥ 5% meta share, and composite ≥ 0.62 — at most 2 per window, and an empty S is a real signal that no single deck is running the format. A/B/C are 0.50 / 0.42 / 0.35 score floors. Anything under 30 Challenge matches drops to Unranked regardless of WR. A "notable niche" override promotes any deck with raw MWR ≥ 0.60 over 30+ matches to at least B (≥ 0.65 over 50+ matches to A), so genuinely strong but low-share decks like Premodern Replenish aren't penalized for sample size; the override never promotes to S. Records from Leagues stay out of the MWR — every League row is 5-0 by construction and would skew every Wilson interval upward — they contribute only through the trophy term.