Metagame tier list — Standard
Ranks every Challenge-played strategy in the window by a hybrid signal: 75% Wilson-lower-bound match win rate from Challenges and 25% League 5-0 trophy throughput, modulated by a mild presence multiplier so popular decks edge slightly ahead of fringe ones. Leagues stay out of the MWR (every League row is 5-0 by construction) and contribute only through the trophy term. S is reserved for decks with Wilson lower-bound ≥ 58%, ≥ 200 matches, ≥ 5% meta share, and composite ≥ 0.62 — at most 2 per window.
S
Dominant, format-warping — must expect, test against, and plan for. Capped at 2 per window; an empty S means no single deck is running the format.
Wilson0.95 60.0% · GW 58.3% · score 0.667
Meta share 28.7% (738 apps)
A
Solidly above the field. Reliable Challenge performers, often with steady League trophies too.
Wilson0.95 58.0% · GW 58.3% · score 0.616
Meta share 11.2% (289 apps)
Wilson0.95 56.2% · GW 57.9% · score 0.555
Meta share 6.3% (163 apps)
Wilson0.95 55.5% · GW 57.4% · score 0.550
Meta share 5.5% (142 apps)
Wilson0.95 55.8% · GW 56.9% · score 0.549
Meta share 7.6% (195 apps)
Wilson0.95 55.4% · GW 56.6% · score 0.546
Meta share 7.2% (185 apps)
Wilson0.95 56.4% · GW 58.2% · score 0.537
Meta share 4.0% (104 apps)
Wilson0.95 55.3% · GW 56.8% · score 0.512
Meta share 2.9% (74 apps)
B
Roughly average winrate after sample-size correction.
Wilson0.95 51.4% · GW 55.0% · score 0.498
Meta share 5.9% (153 apps)
Wilson0.95 55.8% · GW 58.2% · score 0.483
Meta share 2.4% (63 apps)
Wilson0.95 56.2% · GW 55.8% · score 0.483
Meta share 2.6% (68 apps)
Wilson0.95 55.3% · GW 59.9% · score 0.470
Meta share 1.3% (34 apps)
Wilson0.95 47.4% · GW 55.2% · score 0.435
Meta share 1.0% (27 apps)
Wilson0.95 45.3% · GW 55.3% · score 0.328
Meta share 0.2% (6 apps)
Wilson0.95 48.3% · GW 57.2% · score 0.307
Meta share 0.5% (13 apps)
C
Below average but still scored. Stable enough to rank.
Wilson0.95 45.7% · GW 53.7% · score 0.394
Meta share 1.3% (33 apps)
Wilson0.95 45.3% · GW 58.0% · score 0.365
Meta share 0.3% (9 apps)
Wilson0.95 43.4% · GW 51.1% · score 0.356
Meta share 0.8% (21 apps)
Fringe / insufficient data
Insufficient sample — under 30 Challenge matches in the window (or below the 0.35 score floor) but at least 1% of meta share. Surfaced for visibility — not ranked.
Wilson0.95 50.5% · GW 52.4% · score 0.501
Meta share 5.9% (152 apps)
Wilson0.95 45.3% · GW 51.6% · score 0.349
Meta share 2.1% (53 apps)
Methodology. mixed = 0.75 × Wilson0.95(matchWins, matchWins + matchLosses) + 0.25 × log1p(trophies)/log1p(formatMaxTrophies); score = mixed × (0.85 + 0.15 × log1p(meta%·100)/log1p(100)). S is reserved for decks with Wilson lower-bound ≥ 58%, ≥ 200 matches, ≥ 5% meta share, and composite ≥ 0.62 — at most 2 per window, and an empty S is a real signal that no single deck is running the format. A/B/C are 0.50 / 0.42 / 0.35 score floors. Anything under 30 Challenge matches drops to Unranked regardless of WR. A "notable niche" override promotes any deck with raw MWR ≥ 0.60 over 30+ matches to at least B (≥ 0.65 over 50+ matches to A), so genuinely strong but low-share decks like Premodern Replenish aren't penalized for sample size; the override never promotes to S. Records from Leagues stay out of the MWR — every League row is 5-0 by construction and would skew every Wilson interval upward — they contribute only through the trophy term.