Metagame tier list — Pioneer
Ranks every Challenge-played strategy in the window by a hybrid signal: 75% Wilson-lower-bound match win rate from Challenges and 25% League 5-0 trophy throughput, modulated by a mild presence multiplier so popular decks edge slightly ahead of fringe ones. Leagues stay out of the MWR (every League row is 5-0 by construction) and contribute only through the trophy term. S is reserved for decks with Wilson lower-bound ≥ 58%, ≥ 200 matches, ≥ 5% meta share, and composite ≥ 0.62 — at most 2 per window.
S
Dominant, format-warping — must expect, test against, and plan for. Capped at 2 per window; an empty S means no single deck is running the format.
No deck is dominating this format right now — nothing clears all four S gates.
A
Solidly above the field. Reliable Challenge performers, often with steady League trophies too.
Wilson0.95 52.4% · GW 54.0% · score 0.552
Meta share 11.1% (351 apps)
B
Roughly average winrate after sample-size correction.
Wilson0.95 53.3% · GW 54.4% · score 0.497
Meta share 14.1% (447 apps)
Wilson0.95 53.1% · GW 56.6% · score 0.427
Meta share 2.5% (79 apps)
C
Below average but still scored. Stable enough to rank.
Wilson0.95 43.5% · GW 52.8% · score 0.371
Meta share 0.4% (14 apps)
Fringe / insufficient data
Insufficient sample — under 30 Challenge matches in the window (or below the 0.35 score floor) but at least 1% of meta share. Surfaced for visibility — not ranked.
Wilson0.95 55.4% · GW 55.6% · score 0.657
Meta share 69.8% (2,214 apps)
Wilson0.95 52.5% · GW 60.0% · score 0.345
Meta share 1.1% (36 apps)
Methodology. mixed = 0.75 × Wilson0.95(matchWins, matchWins + matchLosses) + 0.25 × log1p(trophies)/log1p(formatMaxTrophies); score = mixed × (0.85 + 0.15 × log1p(meta%·100)/log1p(100)). S is reserved for decks with Wilson lower-bound ≥ 58%, ≥ 200 matches, ≥ 5% meta share, and composite ≥ 0.62 — at most 2 per window, and an empty S is a real signal that no single deck is running the format. A/B/C are 0.50 / 0.42 / 0.35 score floors. Anything under 30 Challenge matches drops to Unranked regardless of WR. A "notable niche" override promotes any deck with raw MWR ≥ 0.60 over 30+ matches to at least B (≥ 0.65 over 50+ matches to A), so genuinely strong but low-share decks like Premodern Replenish aren't penalized for sample size; the override never promotes to S. Records from Leagues stay out of the MWR — every League row is 5-0 by construction and would skew every Wilson interval upward — they contribute only through the trophy term.